Yesterday on X, I saw a video about Boz teasing some VR announcements at Connect. This made many people excited, but honestly, I think we shouldn’t expect too much from this piece of news.
Meta teasing VR announcements at Connect
During his latest AMA on Instagram, in response to a question asking if Meta was abandoning VR, Boz reiterated what we already know: that the company is still working on various headsets and that they are focusing on economic sustainability more than before. Then he added that they’ll share more about all of this at Connect.
The last sentence is the one that made us all realize that Meta is finally going to unveil something VR-related at Connect. May it be a full announcement, may it be a teaser, but most probably Meta is going to show something about its next-gen MR headset at Connect. I really hope to be invited again at Connect, so that I can report to you about it live (People at Meta reading this post: make it happen!)
There are two headsets that Meta is working on, according to the rumors: a lightweight mixed reality headset connected to a computational unit, codenamed Phoenix/Puffin/Loma (the exact codename depends on the particular prototype); and a Quest 4 dedicated to gaming. Many rumors hint at the fact that Phoenix will be the device launched first, so I expect Meta to tease something about it at Connect.
Why this is good news
I’m pretty excited to know more about this headset. I remember a little bird telling me some months ago that it is going to be a very interesting device. And the leaked renders confirm it: it looks very lightweight, and resembles more a pair of ski goggles than a shoebox on the face like Quest. I’m really curious to see what Meta has cooked up when designing this device.
It is also great that, with the announcement of this device, Meta will practically confirm that it is still committed to MR/VR. Now the general press is convinced that “VR is dead” and that “Meta has abandoned VR”. Meta announcing a new cool headset will show everyone that all of this is not true. And if journalists get an early demo of the device and it proves to be good, the press may even write posts saying something like “I’ve seen the future of MR, and it is good”. For instance, I’ve seen very good press related to XREAL Aura, but XREAL is still a startup, so rarely this creates big ripple effects. But if there is good press about Meta, well, more investors and decision-makers will get the news that Mixed Reality is going to be cool again.
Why I’m skeptical this is going to change our situation
While the announcement or tease of Phoenix is going to be good news, I don’t think it will make us exit the Winter we are in. The last big Winter we had was in 2017-18, and we could go out of it only with a full change of paradigm, a big blast that increased the sales numbers of VR by a lot: that blast was the Oculus Quest (and later, Oculus Quest 2).
The truth is: I don’t see this big blast happening now. Meta Phoenix is basically a variation of the Vision Pro. It is not a new paradigm; it is basically just Meta taking an existing paradigm and making it cheaper, lighter, and more open.
And the key is how much “cheaper” it can be. If Meta is working on a device that is inspired by the Vision Pro, it may be using MicroOLED displays, plus eye tracking (the new Quest menu is clearly made for gaze+pinch interactions), plus probably the latest Qualcomm Snapdragon Elite chipset. If Meta manages to keep it cheap, it still is $1500. I think the price range will be $1000-2000, because just from the bill of materials, this device can’t be cheaper than that. XREAL, which is making Project AURA, has already announced a price “cheaper than $1500” for a device with a 70° FOV. I don’t think Meta can be cheaper than this. Maybe it could have a few years ago, when Meta was heavily subsidizing hardware, but now Meta is trying to make XR more economically sustainable (as Boz confirmed in the above video), and this means that it is less interested in selling devices hugely below cost. So I clearly expect a headset that costs more than $1000.
At that price point, you can forget about huge adoption. I already expect Meta’s executives to come out with the classical PR bullshit statements like “it just costs like a top-tier iPhone”, but the truth is that this is not an iPhone: there’s no Apple brand on it, and there are no clear use cases for ordinary people, so it won’t sell the same. We have already seen that price is very important for the adoption of VR: Quest 3 is a wonderful device, and for $600 it is really a steal. But it sold dramatically less than Quest 2, which was at half the price (and yeah, there was also the pandemic). So either Meta finds “the killer app” for Phoenix, or this is going to be another expensive headset for “prosumers and developers”. I wonder if Meta will also re-ignite its enterprise program for the fourth time because of this device.
Besides that, I’ve heard no excitement about it during my trips to China, the US, and Germany. I’ve met a lot of people, even people with relationships with Meta, and no one told me behind the scenes, “Oh, wait for Phoenix, this is going to change everything” or “Hey, Meta is giving millions to developers to build new content for the new headset”. On the contrary, I’ve seen lots of people fired from the VR/MR sector at Meta, even super-talented ones. So I don’t think huge investments in the ecosystem are coming from the launch of this headset, at least in the short term.
I’m actually skeptical about all the upcoming devices
My expectations around Meta Phoenix align with the ones on all the other upcoming headsets.
Snap Specs is very cool, but costs $2,200. Vision Pro costs $3,700, and there are no signs of it becoming cheaper. Pico Swan, I would bet around $2,000. The Steam Frame will be cheaper, but still around $8-900. We are entering an era where doing AR/VR is becoming expensive. These are all very cool headsets, but none of them is going to have widespread adoption, basically because no one can afford spending that money (again, unless a new magical use case surfaces).
So these new VR headsets will be again for prosumers, developers, and for enterprise. They may become popular in some specific niches. They may find use in the B2B sector: I’m very intrigued about what the upcoming Pico can make for companies, for instance. But talking about mass adoption, I think we are making a step back instead of a step forward.
Winter is here to stay
When people asked me at XRCC when this VR Winter is going to end, my answer has always been “I think we are going to be in this situation for at least another year”. All these new headsets are going to create some new opportunities, open up new B2B use cases, bring a bit more optimism, and show the press that XR is not dead. For this reason, I think that next year, things will be slightly better. But in my humble opinion, we’ll have no real uptake of the ecosystem until 2028 at least. Of course, I hope to be wrong, but today I see no indicator of anything that can really change the current situation.
So what should you do if you are an XR professional? Well, there are various options. Smartglasses are actually on the rise, and that technology is creating new interesting opportunities. So maybe you can buy some smartglasses and evaluate the opportunities there, both for consumers and for the enterprise. Or you can hybridize your XR knowledge with other technologies that are getting funding now, like robotics or artificial intelligence.
If you are a player, instead, enjoy the content that is coming. And if you are into PCVR, I would really suggest having a look at VR mods, because they are enabling a lot of new opportunities for VR gamers.
I remain positive about the long-term future. But in the short term, there is only one keyword: SURVIVE.
(Header image modified with ChatGPT)